23rd July 2026

Wolstencroft: Investor complacency is making me nervous

My quarterly updates are pretty sparse when it comes to text and my monthly commentaries are non-existent to minimal.?However, I felt the urge to write a longer note, mostly because I am growing nervous about problems brewing in wider financial markets.

During May, investors decided all was well with the world, that the oil problems were temporary and it was time to take profits in some of the big winners and rotate into Europe’s tech names.?This is not a view I share.

Widespread signs of speculation

First, the market is full of short-term participants who are happy to buy into momentum in share prices but are less interested in valuations and momentum in the underlying businesses.?

Signs of speculation are widespread – not just in the high turnover as a proportion of market capitalisation, but also in factors such as rising bank lending in the US and high valuations in certain areas of the market.?

Obviously, the surge in share prices of AI companies has been a big influence. We all think AI tools are great; the issue is whether they will make money for investors. My concern is there are too many providers – at least 15, all of which are in a fight to the death to see who wins. Consumers and semiconductor makers are already benefiting, but whether the providers do is another story.

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